Ações da Coinbase (COIN) saltam 17% mesmo com prejuízo no 4T25 e queda na receita; entenda o que aconteceu – Money Times
A Coinbase (COIN) publicou seus dados referentes ao quarto trimestre de 2025 (4T25) na noite da última quinta-feira (12), apresentando um prejuízo líquido de US$ 667 milhões no período analisado.
O montante reverte o resultado de um ano antes, quando a empresa reportou US$ 1,3 bilhão em lucros na mesma época da reeleição do presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump.
Além disso, a receita foi de US$ 1,78 bilhão no quarto trimestre, indicando que os negócios sofreram junto com a retração do preço do bitcoin (BTC) desde as máximas históricas no ano passado.
O valor representou uma queda expressiva de 22% em comparação com o ano anterior, além de ter ficado abaixo das expectativas dos analistas, que previam US$ 1,84 bilhão.
Ações da Coinbase (COIN)
As ações da Coinbase caíram 7,9%, para US$ 141, antes do anúncio dos resultados do quarto trimestre. Com o mercado cripto sob pressão, o preço das ações da empresa recuou mais de 55% nos últimos seis meses.
No entanto, no pregão regular desta sexta-feira (13), os papéis saltam mais de 17% por dois fatores específicos: o primeiro envolve o avanço da regulação nos Estados Unidos, com a possível aprovação do Clarity Act.
O segundo diz respeito ao preço mais baixo das ações dos últimos meses em comparação aos investimentos realizados pela plataforma de negociação de criptomoedas. Esse capex tende a gerar retornos futuros, na visão dos especialistas, e aproveitar a queda dos papéis é visto como uma boa oportunidade pelos analistas.
Mesmo assim, no início desta semana, analistas do JP Morgan reduziram seu preço-alvo para US$ 290, ante US$ 399. Isso ainda representa uma alta potencial de 105% aproximadamente, de acordo com as cotações de fechamento da última quinta-feira.
Eles citaram volumes menores de negociação de cripto, queda significativa na capitalização total do mercado cripto no quarto trimestre e redução na circulação da USDC.
Impactos das criptomoedas na Coinbase
Apesar do impacto no último trimestre, a Coinbase afirmou que está "deliberadamente bem capitalizada" para atravessar os ciclos do mercado cripto, com US$ 11,3 bilhões em caixa e equivalentes de caixa.
Ainda assim, a Coinbase divulgou US$ 364 milhões em receita com stablecoins no quarto trimestre, ante US$ 226 milhões no mesmo período do ano anterior.
A empresa obtém receita por meio de um acordo de compartilhamento com a Circle (CRCL), pelo qual retém uma parte dos juros gerados pelas reservas da USDC.
Assim, investimentos estratégicos, incluindo participação na Circle, perderam US$ 395 milhões em valor no mesmo intervalo.
Na carta aos acionistas, a Coinbase afirmou que continua apostando fortemente em derivativos após a aquisição da Deribit por US$ 2,9 bilhões no ano passado.
Embora não tenha especificado o total, a empresa disse ter registrado recordes históricos de volume trimestral de negociação de derivativos no quarto trimestre.
A Coinbase afirmou que o trimestre mais fraco foi resultado das condições de mercado, mas conseguiu superar o mercado em volume total negociado, que alcançou US$ 271 bilhões, impulsionado pelo crescimento em derivativos.
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Source Quality
Source classification (primary/secondary/tertiary), named vs anonymous, expert credentials, variety
Summary
Relies heavily on secondary sources (analysts, experts) and company statements without direct primary sourcing.
Specific Findings from the Article (5)
"de acordo com as cotações de fechamento da última quinta-feira."
Cites market data as a secondary source.
Secondary source"na visão dos especialistas"
References unnamed experts.
Secondary source"pelos analistas."
References unnamed analysts.
Secondary source"analistas do JP Morgan reduziram seu preço-alvo"
Cites a specific firm's analysts, a named secondary source.
Secondary source"que previam US$ 1,84 bilhão."
References unnamed analyst expectations.
Secondary sourcePerspective Balance
Acknowledgment of multiple viewpoints, counterarguments, and balanced presentation
Summary
Minimal effort to present counterarguments; primarily reports company data and analyst views without critical opposing viewpoints.
Specific Findings from the Article (3)
"Mesmo assim, no início desta semana, analistas do JP Morgan reduziram seu preço-alvo"
Acknowledges a negative analyst action amidst positive stock movement.
Balance indicator"aproveitar a queda dos papéis é visto como uma boa oportunidade pelos analistas."
Presents only the positive analyst perspective on the stock drop.
One sided"a Coinbase afirmou que está "deliberadamente bem capitalizada""
Reports company's positive self-assessment without challenge.
One sidedContextual Depth
Background information, statistics, comprehensiveness of coverage
Summary
Provides good financial context, historical comparisons, and explanatory details about revenue sources.
Specific Findings from the Article (4)
"prejuízo líquido de US$ 667 milhões"
Provides specific financial data.
Statistic"receita foi de US$ 1,78 bilhão"
Provides specific revenue figure.
Statistic"O montante reverte o resultado de um ano antes, quando a empresa reportou US$ 1,3 bilhão em lucros"
Provides historical comparison for context.
Background"A empresa obtém receita por meio de um acordo de compartilhamento com a Circle (CRCL)"
Explains a key business mechanism.
Context indicatorLanguage Neutrality
Absence of loaded, sensationalist, or politically biased language
Summary
Mostly neutral, factual language with one instance of potentially loaded terminology.
Specific Findings from the Article (3)
"A Coinbase (COIN) publicou seus dados referentes ao quarto trimestre de 2025"
Neutral, factual reporting.
Neutral language"As ações da Coinbase caíram 7,9%, para US$ 141"
Neutral reporting of stock movement.
Neutral language"uma queda expressiva de 22%"
"Expressiva" (expressive/significant) adds a slight subjective emphasis.
SensationalistTransparency
Author attribution, dates, methodology disclosure, quote attribution
Summary
Clear author and date attribution, good quote attribution to the company, but lacks methodology disclosure.
Specific Findings from the Article (2)
"a Coinbase afirmou que está "deliberadamente bem capitalizada""
Quote is clearly attributed to the company.
Quote attribution"Na carta aos acionistas, a Coinbase afirmou que"
Statement is clearly attributed to a company shareholder letter.
Quote attributionLogical Coherence
Internal consistency of claims, absence of contradictions and unsupported causation
Summary
No logical inconsistencies detected; narrative flows from problem (losses) to market reaction and company explanation.
Logic Issues Detected
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs 7.9%
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P3"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs 17%
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P4"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs $11.3 billion
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P6"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs $364 million
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P7"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 7.9% vs 17%
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P3 and P4"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 7.9% vs $11.3 billion
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P3 and P6"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 7.9% vs $364 million
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P3 and P7"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 17% vs $11.3 billion
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P4 and P6"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 17% vs $364 million
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P4 and P7"
-
Contradiction (high)
Conflicting values for 'coinbase': $11.3 billion vs $364 million
"Heuristic: Values conflict between P6 and P7"
Core Claims & Their Sources
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"Coinbase stock rose 17% despite a Q4 2025 net loss of $667M and a revenue decline."
Source: Article's synthesis of reported financial data and market price movements. Named secondary
-
"The stock rise was driven by two factors: regulatory advances (Clarity Act) and low stock prices relative to company investments."
Source: Attributed to market analysis and expert views within the article. Secondary
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"Coinbase is "deliberately well capitalized" to weather market cycles."
Source: Direct quote/statement attributed to Coinbase. Primary
Logic Model Inspector
Inconsistencies FoundExtracted Propositions (13)
-
P1
"Coinbase reported a Q4 2025 net loss of $667 million."
Factual In contradiction -
P2
"Q4 2025 revenue was $1.78 billion, a 22% year-over-year decline."
Factual -
P3
"Coinbase stock fell 7.9% to $141 before the earnings release."
Factual In contradiction -
P4
"Coinbase stock rose over 17% in regular trading on Friday the 13th."
Factual In contradiction -
P5
"JP Morgan analysts reduced their price target for COIN from $399 to $290."
Factual -
P6
"Coinbase holds $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents."
Factual In contradiction -
P7
"Coinbase generated $364 million in stablecoin revenue in Q4."
Factual In contradiction -
P8
"Strategic investments, including stake in Circle, lost $395 million in value in Q4."
Factual -
P9
"Total traded volume reached $271 billion in Q4."
Factual -
P10
"Revenue fell because "business suffered along with the retraction causes of the bitcoin price since last year's historic highs.""
Causal -
P11
"The stock price jump is due to "the advance of regulation in the US, with the possible causes approval of the Clarity Act" and "the lower stock pri..."
Causal -
P12
"JP Morgan analysts cited "smaller crypto trading volumes, significant drop in total crypto causes market cap in Q4, and reduction in USDC circulati..."
Causal -
P13
"The weaker quarter "was causes the result of market conditions.""
Causal
Claim Relationships Graph
Detected Contradictions (10)
View Formal Logic Representation
=== Propositions === P1 [factual]: Coinbase reported a Q4 2025 net loss of $667 million. P2 [factual]: Q4 2025 revenue was $1.78 billion, a 22% year-over-year decline. P3 [factual]: Coinbase stock fell 7.9% to $141 before the earnings release. P4 [factual]: Coinbase stock rose over 17% in regular trading on Friday the 13th. P5 [factual]: JP Morgan analysts reduced their price target for COIN from $399 to $290. P6 [factual]: Coinbase holds $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. P7 [factual]: Coinbase generated $364 million in stablecoin revenue in Q4. P8 [factual]: Strategic investments, including stake in Circle, lost $395 million in value in Q4. P9 [factual]: Total traded volume reached $271 billion in Q4. P10 [causal]: Revenue fell because "business suffered along with the retraction causes of the bitcoin price since last year's historic highs." P11 [causal]: The stock price jump is due to "the advance of regulation in the US, with the possible causes approval of the Clarity Act" and "the lower stock price of recent months compared to investments made." P12 [causal]: JP Morgan analysts cited "smaller crypto trading volumes, significant drop in total crypto causes market cap in Q4, and reduction in USDC circulation" for their price target cut. P13 [causal]: The weaker quarter "was causes the result of market conditions." === Constraints === P1 contradicts P3 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs 7.9% P1 contradicts P4 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs 17% P1 contradicts P6 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs $11.3 billion P1 contradicts P7 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 4 vs $364 million P3 contradicts P4 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 7.9% vs 17% P3 contradicts P6 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 7.9% vs $11.3 billion P3 contradicts P7 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 7.9% vs $364 million P4 contradicts P6 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 17% vs $11.3 billion P4 contradicts P7 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': 17% vs $364 million P6 contradicts P7 Note: Conflicting values for 'coinbase': $11.3 billion vs $364 million === Causal Graph === revenue fell because business suffered along with the retraction -> of the bitcoin price since last years historic highs the stock price jump is due to the advance of regulation in the us with the possible -> approval of the clarity act and the lower stock price of recent months compared to investments made jp morgan analysts cited smaller crypto trading volumes significant drop in total crypto -> market cap in q4 and reduction in usdc circulation for their price target cut the weaker quarter was -> the result of market conditions === Detected Contradictions === UNSAT: P1 AND P3 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P3 UNSAT: P1 AND P4 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P4 UNSAT: P1 AND P6 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P6 UNSAT: P1 AND P7 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P1 and P7 UNSAT: P3 AND P4 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P3 and P4 UNSAT: P3 AND P6 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P3 and P6 UNSAT: P3 AND P7 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P3 and P7 UNSAT: P4 AND P6 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P4 and P6 UNSAT: P4 AND P7 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P4 and P7 UNSAT: P6 AND P7 Proof: Heuristic: Values conflict between P6 and P7