Eight out of ten Flávio Bolsonaro voters want him to continue in the presidential race despite the Dark Horse scandal — the case involving $10.6 million in transfers from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro. A Datafolha poll conducted May 20-21 surveyed 2,004 people in 139 cities and found 88% support for continuity among declared supporters of the senator (PL-RJ). Only 10% want him to withdraw from the race. ≈
Press quotes (1)
"Pesquisa Datafolha realizada entre os dias 20 e 21 de maio aponta que 88% dos eleitores que declaram voto no senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) defendem que ele deve seguir na disputa à Presidência mesmo após as revelações da ligação dele com o ex-banqueiro Daniel Vorcaro... A pesquisa ouviu 2.004 entrevistados em 139 cidades"
Among the general electorate, the scenario reverses: 48% defend that Flávio should leave the presidential race, while 44% want him to remain a candidate and 8% didn't know how to respond. The poll, registered with the Electoral Justice under code BR-07489/2026 with a two-point margin of error, showed impact on voting intentions: Flávio fell from 35% to 31% in the first round and from 45% to 43% in the second, while Lula rose from 38% to 40% in the first round.
Press quotes (2)
"The exchanges were revealed by The Intercept Brasil. Valor confirmed the authenticity of the messages with two sources familiar with the investigations"
"The documents indicate that $10.6 million was transferred out of a planned total of $23.9 million. The funds were transferred from Entre Investimentos to Havengate Development Fund, based in Texas and legally represented by lawyer Paulo Calixto"
Legally, TSE ministers assess there is currently no impediment to the official registration of Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy, according to an Estadão report. Should he abandon the race, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro appears as the main alternative in the Bolsonaro camp: 60% of the senator's voters point to her as their first choice to replace him. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"No eleitorado total, o cenário muda: 48% defendem que Flávio Bolsonaro deixe a disputa presidencial, enquanto 44% defendem que ele mantenha a candidatura e 8% não souberam responder"
"Nesta rodada, o Datafolha mostra que houve impacto na intenção de voto de Flávio: na simulação de primeiro turno, a intenção de voto caiu de 35% para 31%, e na de segundo, oscilou de 45% para 43%. O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva passou de 38% para 40% no primeiro turno e de 45% a 47% no segundo"
Datafolha poll from May 20-21 found 88% support for candidacy continuation among declared Flávio Bolsonaro voters
The Dark Horse scandal involves million-dollar transfers from Daniel Vorcaro for production of a film about Jair Bolsonaro
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (1)
Michelle Bolsonaro is the main alternative if Flávio abandons the race, with 60% preference among his voters
Conflicting versions (1)
Total value of transfers for the Dark Horse film
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What is Daniel Vorcaro's specific legal situation and whether his federal criminal charges are related to the Dark Horse film transfers?
Why it's still unknown: Reports confirm Vorcaro was arrested by Federal Police in November 2025, but don't specify whether the million-dollar film transfers are part of the criminal charges or a separate investigation
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What other candidates are registered or intend to register for the 2026 presidential election?
Why it's still unknown: The poll compares Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, but doesn't cite the complete field of candidacies to contextualize voting intentions
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What is the specific electoral calendar for 2026 — registration dates, first round, potential second round?
Why it's still unknown: Sources discuss candidacy viability but don't cite the TSE's official 2026 calendar