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European Centre Forecasts Possible Super El Niño Between 2026 and 2027

2 sources · 14 Apr 2026

Projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate the possibility of a super El Niño forming this year. The phenomenon could become the most intense in 140 years and lead the planet to new temperature records by 2027.

El Niño is characterized by an increase of at least 0.5°C in Pacific Ocean waters, while super El Niño is associated with warming above 2°C. The phenomenon could break the record of the 2015 El Niño, when Pacific temperatures reached 2.8°C above average.

Where they disagree: 9 consensus points See the disagreements →

What the sources say

Consensus
9
all sources agree
Partial
0
only one or two report
Disputed
0
sources contradict each other

Click any claim to see the source quotes and primary documents.

Consensus

El Niño is characterized by an increase of at least 0.5°C in Pacific Ocean waters

2 sources
Consensus

Super El Niño is associated with warming above 2°C

2 sources
Consensus

2015 El Niño recorded Pacific temperatures 2.8°C above average

2 sources
Consensus

In Brazil, El Niño causes drought in the Northeast and intense rainfall in the South

2 sources
Consensus

Professor Paul Roundy from New York University confirmed risk of strongest El Niño in over a century

2 sources
Consensus

Phenomenon could cause droughts in Central America, Central Africa, Australia, Indonesia and Philippines

2 sources
Consensus

Forecast of torrential rains in Peru, Ecuador and other areas near the Equator

2 sources
Consensus

2027 emerges as year with greatest potential to register new global heat records

2 sources
Consensus

Global warming is altering El Niño phenomenon patterns

2 sources

All sources

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