Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) appears technically tied with President Lula in the 2026 presidential race, according to a Datafolha poll released on Saturday (16). Lula has 38% of voting intentions in the first round, while Flávio registers 35%. In a runoff, both appear with 45% of voting intentions. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"Pesquisa Datafolha divulgada neste sábado (16) pelo jornal "Folha de S.Paulo" mostra o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva e o senador Flávio Bolsonaro tecnicamente empatados no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial de 2026. Lula aparece com 38% das intenções de voto, enquanto o senador tem 35%."
"Pesquisa Datafolha divulgada neste sábado (16) pelo jornal "Folha de S. Paulo" aponta o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) e o senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) com 45% das intenções de voto no segundo turno da eleição presidencial."
The poll was conducted mostly before the revelation of conversations between Flávio and banker Daniel Vorcaro about financing R$ 61 million for the film "Dark Horse," a biography of Jair Bolsonaro. According to audio released by the Intercept Brasil website, Flávio directly negotiated with Vorcaro a total contribution of US$ 24 million (about R$ 134 million), with at least R$ 61 million already paid in six operations between February and May 2025. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"A pesquisa é a primeira divulgada após o site "Intercept Brasil" tornar público que o senador do PL pediu dinheiro ao ex-dono do Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, para financiar o filme "Dark Horse". A maioria das entrevistas, no entanto, foi feita antes da revelação das conversas entre o pré-candidato e o banqueiro."
"Segundo os documentos, mensagens e áudios divulgados, Flávio negociou diretamente com Vorcaro um aporte de US$ 24 milhões — cerca de R$ 134 milhões na cotação da época — para financiar Dark Horse, filme biográfico sobre o ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro."
Vorcaro is investigated by Federal Police for crimes including money laundering, corruption, criminal organization, intimidation tactics, coercion and invasion of computer devices in the context of the Banco Master scheme. Questioned by reporters at the STF, Flávio only responded that it involves "private money," but later released a video confirming the request for money from Vorcaro while denying irregularities. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"Atualmente, a Polícia Federal (PF) investiga um leque complexo de crimes atribuídos a Daniel Vorcaro, que inclui **lavagem de dinheiro**, **corrupção**, **organização criminosa**, além de **táticas de intimidação**, **coerção e invasão** **de dispositivos informáticos, entre outros crimes.**"
"O senador foi questionado na tarde desta quarta-feira (13) por repórteres sobre o tema ao sair do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), mas respondeu apenas que se trata de 'dinheiro privado'. Mais tarde, o político divulgou um vídeo confirmando o pedido de dinheiro a Vorcaro, mas negando irregularidades."
The senator also faces criminal investigation for alleged defamation against Lula, opened by Justice Alexandre de Moraes on April 15, based on a post from January 3, 2026. The Federal Police has 60 days for investigations. Experts assess that chances of electoral impediment are low, as the Clean Record Law does not contemplate defamation as a cause of ineligibility, and Flávio has parliamentary immunity as a senator. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"O ministro Alexandre de Moraes, do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), determinou nesta quarta-feira (15) a abertura de uma investigação contra o senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) por suposta calúnia contra o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Na postagem, publicada no X (antigo Twitter), em 3 de janeiro de 2026, Flávio atribui a Lula crimes como os de tráfico de drogas e lavagem de dinheiro."
"Segundo Adriano Soares, advogado e ex-juiz de Direito Eleitoral, os critérios previstos na Lei da Ficha Limpa, principal legislação sobre inelegibilidade, não contemplam o crime de calúnia."
Daniel Vorcaro is investigated by Federal Police for multiple crimes related to the Banco Master scheme
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly confirmed asking Vorcaro for money, but denies irregularities
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (2)
The scandal would have devastating impact on Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy
Flávio Bolsonaro would seek support from Faria Lima financial sector as political survival strategy
Conflicting versions (1)
Total amount negotiated between Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro
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What is the complete methodology of the Datafolha poll (sample, collection method, margin of error)?
Why it's still unknown: Reports cite only percentages, without detailing margin of error or collection methodology
Did not cover: G1 -
Are there other registered candidates for 2026 besides Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro?
Why it's still unknown: The poll mentions only the two names, without clarifying the complete candidacy scenario
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What is the strongest argument against the interpretation that the scandal compromises Flávio's candidacy?
Why it's still unknown: All sources present the scandal as damaging; no source offers substantive counterpoint
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Does the Dark Horse film financing violate any specific campaign or electoral financing law?
Why it's still unknown: Reports suggest irregularities but do not specify which electoral norms would have been violated