Lula jumped from 38% to 40% of voting intentions for president in 2026, while Flávio Bolsonaro fell from 35% to 31%, widening the PT candidate's advantage from 3 to 9 percentage points, according to a Datafolha poll released this Friday. The survey was conducted between May 20-21 — one week after the "Dark Horse" case revelation — and interviewed 2,004 voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points and TSE registration BR-07489/2026. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"Metodologia: 2.004 entrevistados pelo Datafolha entre os dias 20 e 21 de maio de 2026. A pesquisa foi contratada pela Folha de S. Paulo. O nível de confiança é de 95%. A margem de erro é de 2 pontos percentuais, para mais ou para menos. Registro no TSE nº BR-07489/2026."
"Segundo o Datafolha, Lula passou de 38% para 40% das intenções de voto no cenário de primeiro turno, enquanto Flávio recuou de 35% para 31%. Com isso, a diferença entre os dois candidatos saltou de 3 para 9 pontos percentuais em apenas uma semana."
According to the poll, 64% of respondents said they knew about the "Dark Horse" case, and the same percentage considers that Flávio Bolsonaro "acted badly" in the episode. In the spontaneous poll — when voters don't see a candidate list — Flávio maintained 17% of voting intentions, while Lula has 28%, indicating that the senator remains the main anti-Lula figure in the race.
Press quotes (1)
"As informações foram reveladas nesta quarta-feira (13) pelo portal Intercept Brasil, que teve acesso a mensagens trocadas entre os dois e a um áudio enviado por Flávio ao banqueiro em setembro do ano passado. A TV Globo confirmou com investigadores e pessoas com acesso às informações o conteúdo da reportagem e a existência do áudio. Segundo o Intercept, Vorcaro pagou R$ 61 milhões para a produção do filme 'Dark Horse' entre fevereiro e maio de 2025."
Vorcaro has been in preventive detention since March 4 by order of STF Justice André Mendonça, in another phase of Operation Compliance Zero, due to "concrete risk of interference in investigations" related to the Banco Master case. In an audio from September 8, 2025, Flávio pressured the banker for pending payments, saying: "It's a very decisive moment here for the film and since there are many installments behind, man, everyone is tense". ✓
Press quotes (2)
"Segundo o levantamento, 64% dos entrevistados disseram ter ouvido falar do caso, mesmo percentual de eleitores que acham que Flávio agiu mal."
"Na pesquisa espontânea, quando o eleitor não vê a lista de opções, o parlamentar se manteve estável com 17% das intenções de voto, enquanto o presidente tem 28%."
Datafolha poll conducted between May 20-21 with 2,004 voters, margin of error 2 p.p., TSE registration BR-07489/2026
64% of respondents know the Dark Horse case and the same percentage considers that Flávio acted badly
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (2)
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What is Flávio Bolsonaro's specific legal status in the Dark Horse case?
Why it's still unknown: Sources report the revelation of messages and audios, but don't specify whether there's a formal investigation open against the senator or only against Vorcaro
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How did other potential candidates react to the case or position themselves on it?
Why it's still unknown: Coverage focused on electoral impact between Lula and Flávio, without mentioning positions from other pre-candidates like Caiado or Zema
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What are the next procedural steps in the investigation involving the Dark Horse film?
Why it's still unknown: Sources report Vorcaro's arrest and message revelations, but don't specify whether there's a specific investigation about the film financing underway