Your presidential vote may come down to two choices: President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) tied with 45% voting intentions each in a runoff, according to a Datafolha poll released this Saturday. The survey — registered with TSE as BR-00290/2026 — was conducted on May 12-13, before revelations about conversations between Flávio and banker Daniel Vorcaro. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"O Datafolha realizou 2.004 entrevistas com a população brasileira de 16 anos ou mais, em todo o Brasil, em 139 municípios. A margem de erro máxima é de 2 pontos percentuais, para mais ou para menos, com nível de confiança de 95%. A pesquisa está registrada no TSE com o código BR-00290/2026."
Timing matters: most of the 2,004 interviews were completed before The Intercept Brasil published, on the afternoon of May 13, audio recordings in which Flávio requests R$ 61 million from Vorcaro to finance the "Dark Horse" film about Jair Bolsonaro. Vorcaro is the former owner of Banco Master, which collapsed in November 2025 after defrauding about 800,000 investors of approximately $2.3 billion, according to Federal Police investigations. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"Earlier, The Intercept Brazil published voice messages of Bolsonaro asking Vorcaro, who is at the center of a major corruption scandal, for 61 million reais ($12 million) to produce "The Dark Horse," a movie that Sen. Bolsonaro says he is making on the life of his father, jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro."
"Vorcaro is the former owner of Banco Master, which collapsed and folded on November 18, 2025, in the midst of a scandal involving defrauding 800,000 investors of approximately $2.3 billion in toxic financial assets."
The poll shows Lula opened an advantage over other right-wing candidates: he beats Romeu Zema (Novo) 46% to 40% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) 46% to 39% in runoff scenarios. In the first round, Lula leads with 38% against Flávio's 35% — a technical tie within the two percentage point margin of error. The stability in numbers between April and May suggests Flávio's pre-campaign had lost momentum even before the Vorcaro crisis. ✓
Press quotes (1)
"Segundo o Datafolha, ainda nas projeções de segundo turno, Lula tem 46% contra 40% do ex-governador de Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo). Lula pontua 46% contra 39% do ex-governador de Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)"
The revelations about Flávio could still reconfigure the electoral scenario. Federal Police are investigating whether the film resources were used to fund Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro's stay in the United States. The case also involves Ciro Nogueira, Bolsonaro's former Chief of Staff, who according to the PF received monthly payments of R$ 300,000 to R$ 500,000 from Vorcaro. Roberto Campos Neto, the Central Bank president appointed by Jair Bolsonaro, authorized Banco Master's operating license in 2019, after the Michel Temer government had rejected Vorcaro's previous applications. ✓
Press quotes (2)
"Federal Police have discovered that Nogueira received personal benefits from Daniel Vorcaro: an apartment, paid trips, and a monthly allowance that started at R$300,000 and later grew to R$500,000 a month."
"Daniel Vorcaro reapplied after Jair Bolsonaro appointed Roberto Campos Neto to head the Central Bank, and he authorized it. So Banco Master began operating during the first year of Jair Bolsonaro's presidency."
Datafolha poll was conducted between May 12-13, 2026, before full revelation of conversations between Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro
Lula opened an advantage over Zema and Caiado compared to the previous April poll
Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.
Covered by only some sources (2)
Lula allies interpret the numbers as a sign that Flávio was already losing strength before the Vorcaro case
Romeu Zema called the Flávio-Vorcaro case a 'turned page' after initial criticism
Conflicting versions (1)
Flávio Bolsonaro's reaction to poll results
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What is the real electoral impact of the Vorcaro case on Flávio Bolsonaro's voting intentions?
Why it's still unknown: The Datafolha poll was conducted before the full revelation of the case, capturing only the beginning of the crisis on the afternoon of May 13
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What other members of the Bolsonaro family might be involved in the Banco Master scheme?
Why it's still unknown: Federal Police are still investigating whether resources were used to fund Eduardo Bolsonaro in the US, but the complete scope of the investigation has not been disclosed
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Which center-right candidates could benefit electorally from Flávio Bolsonaro's damage?
Why it's still unknown: Political articulations are still ongoing and effects on Zema and Caiado depend on how the case evolves
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What is the exact collection methodology of the Datafolha poll and how might it affect representativeness?
Why it's still unknown: The poll specifies sample size and margin of error, but does not detail collection method (in-person, telephone, digital) or demographic stratification