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Quaest: 52% of Brazilians reject sentence reduction for January 8th participants

6 sources · 18 May 2026
2 agreed · 2 partial · 1 conflicts

More than half of Brazilians (52%) reject sentence reductions for those convicted in the January 8, 2023 acts, according to a Genial/Quaest poll released Sunday. The survey was conducted after Congress overturned President Lula's veto of the Dosimetry Law — which changed sentencing calculation rules for crimes against democratic rule.

Press quotes (1)
Carta Capital

"Mais da metade dos brasileiros, 52%, não querem a redução das penas dos condenados pelos atos golpistas de 8 de janeiro de 2023"

The poll surveyed 2,004 people in person across 120 municipalities between May 8-11, 2026, with a 2-percentage-point margin of error and 95% confidence level. Of the total, 39% support sentence flexibility and 9% didn't know or declined to answer.

Press quotes (1)
Quaest

"A Quaest ouviu 2.004 pessoas presencialmente em 120 municípios entre os dias 8 e 11 de maio de 2026. O nível de confiabilidade é de 95% e a margem de erro é de 2 pontos percentuais"

Rejection varies by political preference: among Bolsonaro supporters, 73% back reductions; among Lula supporters, 72% oppose them. Among independents — traditionally decisive in national elections — 58% reject the measure versus 31% in favor.

Press quotes (1)
Jc

"Entre os entrevistados que se declaram bolsonaristas, 73% apoiam a redução das penas. Já entre lulistas, 72% são contrários à medida. Entre os independentes, a rejeição também é majoritária: 58% são contra a flexibilização das punições"

For 54% of respondents, the Dosimetry Law was approved specifically to benefit former President Jair Bolsonaro, sentenced to 27 years and three months for crimes against democracy. Another 34% believe the intention was to reduce sentences for all January 2023 participants.

Press quotes (1)
Carta Capital

"Para 54%, a medida teve o objetivo específico de ajudar o ex-presidente. Já 34% disseram acreditar que a intenção foi aliviar as penas de todos os envolvidos nos atos golpistas"

1. What we know (2)

Poll conducted between May 8-11, 2026 with 2,004 respondents and 2-percentage-point margin of error

6 sources Carta Capital Exame Jc Veja O Liberal Www1

52% of respondents reject sentence reductions versus 39% in favor

6 sources Carta Capital Exame Jc Veja O Liberal Www1
2. Where coverage thins out (3)

Covered by only some sources, or where the accounts diverge.

Covered by only some sources (2)

In December 2025, when the project was approved, opposing and supporting groups were tied at 46% each

Reported by: O Liberal Www1
Did not cover: Carta Capital Exame Jc Veja

Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months for involvement in the coup plot

Reported by: Veja
Did not cover: Carta Capital Exame Jc O Liberal Www1

Conflicting versions (1)

Percentage of independents who reject the measure

3 sources — "58% of independents reject versus 31% in favor": Exame Jc Www1
1 source — "54% of independents reject versus 31% in favor": Carta Capital
3. What we don't know yet (3)
  • What was the exact wording of questions asked to respondents about sentence reductions?

    Why it's still unknown: Quaest did not publicly release the complete questionnaire with specific questions about January 8th, only aggregate results

    Did not cover: Carta Capital Exame Jc Veja O Liberal Www1
  • How does the judicial suspension of the Dosimetry Law concretely affect ongoing cases of the convicted?

    Why it's still unknown: Reports mention Moraes' suspension but don't detail procedural impacts on individual ongoing cases

    Did not cover: Carta Capital Exame Jc Veja
  • When should the STF plenary definitively rule on the ADIs regarding the law's constitutionality?

    Why it's still unknown: No source indicates timeline for Supreme Court analysis of the direct unconstitutionality actions

    Did not cover: Carta Capital Exame Jc Veja O Liberal Www1

All sources

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